Inner Mongolia is turning inference into an export commodity, and that makes the AI bubble a policy choice
Six departments make tokens an export good
Six agencies signed it. Inner Mongolia's data-administration bureau and five other departments issued measures to make the region a national high-quality token supply base, a hub for exporting tokens, and a pilot zone for the token economy — a token being the billable unit of model inference. The full text reads like a five-year plan for a commodity that did not exist in 2023.
The supply half is energy policy. Companies building hyperscale inference centres on domestic chips get guarantees on land, green power and energy-consumption quotas. "Token factories" are to produce at scale and cheaply, and model firms with real purchasing pull are told to buy domestic compute first, to force a fully domestic stack.
The demand half is a market. The region will build its own token trading platform with standardised rules, seek cross-border data-flow pilots so tokens can be exported through its free-trade zone, and list high-quality datasets for trade — naming dataset pledge financing, securitisation and data trusts as the financing models to explore.
It is not acting alone. Beijing's development zone issued the first full-chain token package on 5 August, with compute-rental subsidies up to 20m yuan (~$2.8m); Guangdong launched a token loan on 14 August. Daily national token consumption went from 100bn in early 2024 to above 140 trillion by March.
From inside, it looks like a bubble. Leia Wang, a nonresident scholar in Carnegie's Technology and International Affairs Program, reports that Chinese investors describe their own AI market as a children's game — pass the flower while the drum beats, lose if you are holding it when it stops. Some 80,000 Chinese AI companies have dissolved or deregistered in two years.
Her argument is that the bubble is the instrument. Foreign investors' share of Chinese VC deal value fell from 54.8% in 2018 to roughly 20% in 2023; state funds filled the early stage, faster than the industry can absorb. Solar and EVs looked identical. Read it as industrial policy.
THE TELL: once a province runs the exchange, sets the metering standard and lends against the inventory, the price of a token stops being an outcome of DeepSeek's price war and becomes something the state can set.
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Half-mast for Zhu, loyalty essays from the generals
Zhu Rongji was cremated on Tuesday. Xi led the Party elite in the final farewell to the premier from 1998 to 2003, the architect of the state-enterprise layoffs and of WTO accession, with flags at half-mast; SCMP puts his age at 97. No named eulogist, no quotable line. Protocol maximal, politics zero — as called on Sunday.
The nineties got spent elsewhere. Zhang Shengmin — the general who has run military discipline inspection since 2017 and became a Central Military Commission vice-chairman in October — published an article invoking Jiang Zemin's response to the Soviet collapse and the first Gulf War, on party unity and military reform against external threats. Loyalty, from the discipline man.
Which is the whole point of the essay. His predecessor in the job was expelled last year, and the first-ranked vice-chairman was put under investigation in January. Same week: Zhao Xiaozhe, 63, a navy vice-admiral whose combat software helped warships process battlefield data and who once headed the CMC's top science body, vanished from the Chinese Academy of Engineering's membership list.
And a drill was published, then wasn't. Defence Times described the Eastern Theatre Command dropping camouflaged cases of cash and gold bars from a multi-rotor drone in a "wartime financial support" exercise, apparently simulating a Taiwan operation. Heavy online discussion, then deletion.
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Trump trims the drills, Wang Yi books Seoul
The opening came from Washington. Trump posted on Sunday that the US should scale back military exercises with South Korea, citing cost savings and goodwill among other rationales, and SCMP records the unease that ran through US allies in Asia. Days later, foreign minister Wang Yi is on his way to Seoul.
Nothing in that sequence is subtle. Beijing did not have to do anything to earn the visit's leverage; the alliance's own principal supplied it, three weeks before Xi's planned September trip to the United States.
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DeepSeek is now billing for memory, not maths
The rise landed on the cheapest line. Cache-hit input on V4-Pro went from 0.025 yuan per million tokens to 0.3 at peak — twelve times — and five times off-peak. Leiphone's read: the item developers were told to abuse is the one that broke.
The mechanism is thrashing. At peak, long-context requests fill GPU memory, and the scheduler evicts cold blocks to NVMe. Each eviction hauls hundreds of megabytes; two long requests arriving seconds apart can push each other's shared prefix out. The cluster stops computing and starts moving data.
Compression is why it was ever free. V4 interleaves compressed sparse and heavy compressed attention, merging 4 to 128 adjacent tokens into one block — a million-token cache near 10GB, about 2% of a conventional baseline. On a 15.36TB enterprise SSD at roughly 6,000 yuan (~$845), holding that costs pennies. Anthropic charges a 1.25x-2x premium to write a cache; DeepSeek charged nothing.
One report, two ledgers. The Information, via Techmeme, leads with Alibaba saying Qwen3.8-27B passed 1m downloads within days. Solidot's summary of the same Hugging Face report leads with 3bn Qwen downloads in six months against Google's 418m and Meta's 227m, and 151,448 derivatives.
Only the Chinese item carries the licence turn. Of 178 Chinese releases above 20bn parameters, 55% are Apache 2.0 and 22% MIT — but the newest flagships, Moonshot's Kimi K3 and Qwen3.8, arrive with non-commercial restrictions and revenue-sharing requirements. The download leader has started charging for downstream success.
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Honor bet 9,999 yuan on a camera that moves
Honor shipped a phone with a moving head. Robot Phone, from 9,999 yuan (~$1,408), packs a four-degrees-of-freedom titanium gimbal into a 9.59mm body so the camera turns to follow a face or a beat. CEO Li Jian puts pre-orders above 400,000 and says the first minute sold out.
The build is the good part. Around 100 precision parts, 68 wires through the hinge, 19 of them coaxial, a 2.6g motor. A month before launch the flip mechanism tested to about one year of life; the team ran 18 material candidates in a week to reach a five-year target. Li said "pressure" 18 times.
Internally, nobody agrees what it is. Leiphone's account, from unnamed staff and supply-chain people: forecasts split between 20,000 and 200,000 units, components stocked for 50,000 to 100,000, and Magic 8 sold about a third of its predecessor. Sentiment, not audited fact — but the split is the story.
The intelligence is rented. Same account: ByteDance's terms had Honor build hardware and gather data while model training and data ownership stayed with ByteDance, so Honor went to Alibaba's Qwen instead. Global handset volumes are down more than 10%; Honor's overseas revenue is up 26%, Mexico 67%.
Luckin picked the wrong couple. For Qixi, the Chinese Valentine's, it wrapped its Thai-tea launch in a comics blogger's couple IP; customers received cups printed with strangers and asked who they were, then posted plagiarism comparisons and ordered with "no co-branded cup" notes.
Frequency is the strategy. Jiemian's read: Luckin runs about three tie-ins a month, so cheap unknown IP fills the calendar. Second-quarter marketing spend hit 925m yuan (~$130m), up 56.1%, and 5.8% of net revenue. Commenters said they would rather have had the low-budget animation now filling cinemas, where Initium finds audiences turning a bad film into a shared ritual.
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Threads we are pulling
- Unitree lists tomorrow. Issue price 150.80 yuan (~$21), market value near 61bn yuan (~$8.6bn), and only 7.44% of shares free-floating. It also unveiled a humanoid claiming a 2m (6ft 7in) standing jump and 12.66 m/s (~28mph), built in a bit over three months. The 520-yuan grey market meets the bell.
- Qwen's 27B, resolved. I flagged the missing dense companion from 12 to 15 August. It shipped, and it just cleared a million downloads.
- I overpriced the games sale. Yesterday I put Alibaba's Lingxi Interactive exit at over $1.5bn; the figure in the internal letter and Chinese reports is 10.1bn yuan (~$1.42bn), buyer CITIC Capital's Trustar.
- US tariff refunds now appear in Chinese filings. Shelf-label maker Hanshow disclosed $23.1m of refunded US duties and interest, adding 71.17m yuan (~$10m) to profit — 15.75% of last audited net income. Background: the Supreme Court voided the IEEPA tariffs on 20 February, and CBP had paid out $71.06bn by late June.
- Geely's handover executed today, with H1 revenue 173.6bn yuan (~$24.5bn), core net profit up 46% to 9.68bn (~$1.36bn), exports up 158% — and a first commitment to stop developing combustion engines entirely.
- New watch — Robotera. The Tsinghua-linked humanoid firm is reported to be weighing a Hong Kong IPO at $800m to $1bn. Second embodied-AI listing queue in a week.
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